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  #2121 (permalink)  
Old 12-05-2012, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by sublime 781 View Post
O.K. going to do a little self correction
we will limit this to R/T production of 68697 units
so we need 686 failures to reach 1%
and there are 29 cases listed so we need 657 more
Your figures assume that every one of the 68,697 RT owners are members of this forum and that all RTs have auto trans. When you factor in that our 29 failures are from only that small pool of automatic RT Challenger owners who are also members of this forum, had a TC failure and cared about/had knowledge of what failed, were aware of this tread and posted their failure, then the percentage of failure rate is much much higher.

Last edited by mjb4450; 12-05-2012 at 11:11 AM.
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  #2122 (permalink)  
Old 12-05-2012, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by olskooljr View Post
You could only hope that someone with the cash to buy one of these cars and be technical savy to operate its features and have had TC issues would also have access to the internet and be tech savy enough to google or research the problem, join this forum, and post about it. It could only be in their and our best interest.
I have a co-worker with a 2011 or 2012 RT auto. I spoke to her about the TC problem. Might as well been speaking Greek. She bought the car because she liked the body style. I asked her if she used autostick. She had no clue what that was. I asked if she noticed the + and - next to the shifter. Yep, and she always wondered what that was there for. If her's ever fails, she'll get it fixed and not have a clue what broke. So I'm thinking many many failures go under the radar this way.

Last edited by mjb4450; 12-05-2012 at 11:18 AM.
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  #2123 (permalink)  
Old 12-05-2012, 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by sublime 781 View Post
O.K. going to do a little self correction
we will limit this to R/T production of 68697 units
so we need 686 failures to reach 1%
and there are 29 cases listed so we need 657 more

Ugh...lets expand on this a little.

Of the 68,697 only a small percentage of those owners are members of Challenger talk
Of that small percentage, a smaller percentage are Auto's instead of the non-affected 6 speed manuals
Of that even smaller percentage, a yet even smaller percentage are daily drivers that would hit the 30k mile mark
Of that even smaller percentage, a yet even smaller percentage of those haven't used a tuner to tune out the mds

Then you can factor in the parts guy that said they were getting 20 timing chains a week ordered.

Also factor in the member that said the Dealer who tried to order his replacement heads was told by Chrysler that the heads were on "National backorder"...gee, I wonder why?

You add all that up and we have a freakin' problem here, no matter how much you try and downplay it.
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  #2124 (permalink)  
Old 12-05-2012, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Force10 View Post
Ugh...lets expand on this a little.

Of the 68,697 only a small percentage of those owners are members of Challenger talk
Of that small percentage, a smaller percentage are Auto's instead of the non-affected 6 speed manuals
Of that even smaller percentage, a yet even smaller percentage are daily drivers that would hit the 30k mile mark
Of that even smaller percentage, a yet even smaller percentage of those haven't used a tuner to tune out the mds

Then you can factor in the parts guy that said they were getting 20 timing chains a week ordered.

Also factor in the member that said the Dealer who tried to order his replacement heads was told by Chrysler that the heads were on "National backorder"...gee, I wonder why?

You add all that up and we have a freakin' problem here, no matter how much you try and downplay it.
It's enough of a problem so that I've already decided to trade my 09 auto in next year. I'm at 23.5K miles, I hope I make it! I'm just trying to figure out what I want to trade it in on.
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Old 12-05-2012, 12:29 PM
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Obviously it's a small amount of the cars, but the problem lies in the fact that it's the same thing happening to multiple vehicles. Take the headliner issue. Same problem multiple vehicles.

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  #2126 (permalink)  
Old 12-05-2012, 12:41 PM
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I'm all for honest perspective because alarmist exaggerations help no one (but the competition). But I'm also for knowing the risks before making decisions and denying the issue, or even making it sound unlikely, is another way of muddying the waters.

When this thread got started I was still unsure of whether I'd buy a Challenger or not and was hoping to see a resolution (one way or another) before the fall. It didn't happen and I still bought an auto R/T because this is what I needed. But thanks to the info here I at least know to keep the transmission out of Drive and I'll disable the MDS ASAP. Just to show that you can pay attention to the risks while still putting things into some perspective. IF we didn't care about car issues big and small, we wouldn't be on such a forum. And for those who had the problem, some repeatedly (!), this is serious enough not to be brushed aside as an aberration. The others will probably want to know how to manage the risk until a fix or explanation is given (if ever).

The objection is valid, but it has been raised before and the correct data has to be considered before we start talking statistics. To me there's a lot of smoke.
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Old 12-05-2012, 12:49 PM
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The correct way to run the stats is to find out:
- how many *active* challenger talk forum members own an automatic R/T (those who would report it here if theirs failed)
- how many of those cars are over 25k-30k miles/whatever threshold you want to use
- how many have had TC failures
- approximately how many total automatic R/Ts have been built
These numbers can be used to extrapolate to within one or two std deviations what the expected failure rate is across the entire fleet. It's fairly straight forward once you have the data. Getting the data is usually the hardest part.
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Old 12-05-2012, 12:56 PM
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The "set it, and forget it" theory adds another victim to the list...
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Old 12-05-2012, 01:26 PM
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These are numbers I found here and other places. Numbers are for R/T only.

2009 16,395 - R/Ts - Auto 9,696
2010 22,877 - R/Ts
2011 8,552 - R/Ts
2012 15,158 - R/Ts
2013 5,715 - R/Ts

I could not find numbers for Automatics for other years except 2009.
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Old 12-05-2012, 01:34 PM
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To include a bit of semi-outside perspective, I bought a used 6.1 SRT8 (with manual transmission) instead of a new RT partly due to concern of this issue. With this many members reporting the problem, even if some of them joined the group just to report it we are not talking about a few isolated cases, we are looking at a systematic problem on a part that should never break on a low mileage car. Sure any part can break, but a timing chain breaking on a low mileage vehicle should be something that is reported by one or less likely two members of a community like this, not something that is reported by dozens. If this problem effects 1%, 2% or 5% of the auto R/T's is somewhat moot point when you remember this is a part that SHOULD NEVER FAIL.

On a somewhat separate note I went through something similar with my previous car, it had an all plastic intake that was prone to cracking after a couple of years an improved metal crossover part was introduced on new cars and was retrofitted to cars with all plastic intakes when they broke under warranty. This was a $1,000 plus job counting parts and labor, and was only covered under the standard 3 year warranty with a cracked intake, well eventually there was a class action suit against the company which was settled by extending replacement coverage to 5 years from the date the cars were built, but still no changing out intakes that had not cracked. This settlement was reached when my car (one of the first ones built with this engine) was 4 years and 9 months old, thankfully at 4 years and 10 months mine developed a very small crack and started oozing coolant.. Take what you will from this, but given this experience, but I personally doubt there will be any fleet wide recall, at best expect something similar to the situation described above where they will settle for slightly extending the coverage on the questionable part, but in no way giving satisfaction to those people planning on keeping the car for a long time, this of course assumes that there will be a "fix" and not just a band aid.

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Last edited by Isaac-1; 12-05-2012 at 01:36 PM. Reason: oops left out a word
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